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Mid-year global economic outlook 2025: navigating complexity
June 26, 2025 @ 11:00 am – 12:00 pm EDT
The mid-point of 2025 finds the global economy navigating a volatile mix of macroeconomic headwinds and structural shifts. Momentum has remained generally stable, but growth trajectories are diverging sharply across geographies and sectors.
Mounting policy uncertainty — fueled by protectionist trade shifts, regulatory recalibration and electoral aftershocks — is compounding the complexity of strategic planning. Businesses must now operate in an environment shaped by fragmented globalization, monetary policy desynchronization and renewed inflationary pressures tied to supply fragility and trade policy uncertainty.
In this update, we’ll examine six global macroeconomic and geopolitical themes that are reshaping the global landscape. These include the United States’ evolving role as both a growth anchor and a source of disruption, the ripple effects of contested and increasingly protectionist trade policies, the fine line central banks are treading between inflation volatility and the risk of financial instability, the delicate fiscal balances many governments are confronting, and labor market transformations fueled by new technologies. The imperative for agile leadership and adaptive strategies has never been more pressing.
Join us as we unpack these critical drivers of change, offering actionable insights to help leaders anticipate challenges, seize opportunities and chart a resilient path forward in an increasingly interconnected world.
In this session, we will discuss:
- US exceptionalism reassessed: Growth disruption amid rising policy unpredictability
- Global fragmentation: Trade and geopolitics in a re-globalizing world
- Inflation whiplash: Renewed price pressures meet fragile supply chains
- Policy crossroads: Gradual monetary easing, but with heightened caution
- Fiscal tightrope: Populist pressures vs. long-term debt sustainability
- Labor reset: Productivity, AI adoption and lingering talent mismatches
Speakers
- Gregory Daco, Chief Economist, Strategy and Transactions, EY-Parthenon, Ernst & Young LLP
- Marek Rozkrut, EY EU & CESA Chief Economist
- Courtney Rickert McCaffrey, EY Global Geostrategy Insights Leader
Moderator
Juan Uro, Principal, Strategy and Transactions, EY-Parthenon, Ernst & Young LLP
