2025 Global economic outlook: steering through conflicting currents

The global economic landscape in 2025 is set to be shaped by a convergence of challenges and opportunities. Evolving market dynamics, geopolitical realignments and transformative structural trends across industries are poised to redefine the contours of global growth. Against this backdrop, business leaders must navigate an environment characterized by uncertainty, competing forces and shifting priorities.

In this year’s outlook, we explore six pivotal global macroeconomic themes and geopolitical shifts that will shape the path of major economies in 2025. From the United States’ unique role as both a growth leader and disruptor, to the challenges of navigating trade and geopolitics in a fragmented world, these forces will test resilience and strategy. Inflation volatility, labor market transformations fueled by talent scarcity and new technologies, and the recalibration of monetary and fiscal policies will demand innovative solutions.

Join us as we unpack these critical drivers of change, offering actionable insights to help leaders anticipate challenges, seize opportunities and chart a resilient path forward in an increasingly interconnected world.

Our panelists will discuss:

• US exceptionalism: a growth leader and disruptor
• Trade and geopolitics: derisking in a fragmented universe of inflation and monetary policy
• Inflation volatility: price pressures and supply fragilities
• Monetary policy: reasons to recalibrate and recalibrate with reason
• Labor in flux: talent scarcity, productivity and AI
• Fiscal policy: a delicate balancing act

Panelists

David Li, EY Geostrategic Business Group, China Risk Consultant, Ernst & Young LLPx

Gregory Daco, EY-Parthenon Chief Economist, Strategy and Transactions, Ernst & Young LLP

Marek Rozkrut, EY EU & CESA Chief Economist; EMEIA Economists Unit Head